Something/someone you wouldn't expect to win but they could. The first defitinition on UD is correct, but the term can also be used to refer to sports teams.
Basically in reference to, lets say
Ohio State in the 2010 NCAA
March Madness Bracket challenge. Most people are not expecting Ohio State to win or be in the
final four, but it's posibly they could pop up and win, or at the least make a finalfour appearance.